For decades, Google defined search, Amazon defined e-commerce, and Facebook defined social. Now, with OpenAI’s deep integration with Stripe and the rollout of “Instant Checkout,” a new commercial paradigm is emerging. This is not merely a shift in traffic sources; it’s a fundamental migration from “linking” to “answering” and “acting” as the core of digital commerce.

I. Reshaping the Commercial Loop: From “Walled Gardens” to “Omni-Agents”

Years ago, platforms like Facebook and Instagram successfully locked users into their “walled gardens” by integrating the entire purchase journey within their apps. Today, Artificial Intelligence is replicating and supercharging this strategy, but with a higher dimension – it’s no longer just about displaying ads; it’s about directly agenting decisions and executing transactions.

1. Frictionless “Conversation as Transaction”

OpenAI has taken a pivotal step in commercialization. Through its collaboration with payment giant Stripe, ChatGPT has launched “Instant Checkout”.

• The Paradigm Shift: Previously, a user asking ChatGPT for “camping tent recommendations” would receive suggestions but still need to navigate to Amazon or an independent e-commerce site. Now, leveraging a new Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP), users can complete identity verification, payment, and order confirmation directly within the chat interface.
• Current Status: This functionality has initially been made available to Etsy and Shopify merchants, with Walmart quickly following suit.
• Significance: This marks the arrival of the ultimate form of internet commerce: “frictionless commerce.” If 70-80% of the decision-making process already occurs within the AI conversation, the final 20% – the transaction itself – is now seamlessly integrated.

2. Maximizing Platform Retention

As you astutely observed, AI is consolidating the entire purchase journey within the platform. eMarketer predicts that 53% of consumers plan to shop using generative AI this year. For platforms, this means higher data retention and user stickiness. For merchants, it signifies that traffic no longer “flows to” your website but “resides within” the AI’s dialogue.

II. Evolving Traffic Logic: From SEO to GEO

When the entry point changes, the rules of traffic distribution are upended. We are experiencing a historical leap from SEO (Search Engine Optimization) to GEO (Generative Engine Optimization).

1. Why is Traditional SEO Becoming Obsolete?

In the Google era, users searched keywords to click links. In the ChatGPT era, users search to obtain direct, actionable answers.

Data Validation: Market data indicates that AI traffic boasts a conversion rate 4.4 times higher than traditional Google SEO traffic. This is because when AI recommends a product, it has already completed the crucial steps of filtering, comparing, and endorsing on behalf of the user.

2. Key Differences in GEO Ecosystems: Global vs. China

This distinction is crucial for business operators:

Global Market (Decentralized): ChatGPT’s information sources are relatively distributed and open. It employs a cross-validation algorithm, referencing Wikipedia, Reddit, LinkedIn, and high-quality independent websites. This implies that if your independent site offers rich, high-quality content and clear structured data (prices, inventory, specifications), it has a strong chance of being crawled and recommended by AI.

Chinese Market (Fragmented & Walled Gardens): China’s AI ecosystem exhibits distinct “walled garden” characteristics.

• Doubao (ByteDance): Tends to prioritize content from Douyin and Toutiao.
• Wenxin Yiyan (Baidu): Favors Baijiahao and Baidu Baike.
• Yuanbao (Tencent): Integrates closely with WeChat Official Accounts and Video Accounts.
• Implication: For GEO in China, the essence is omnichannel content ecosystem positioning; for global GEO, the core strategy reverts to building content on independent (DTC) websites and strategically leveraging affiliate marketing for credible sources.

III. The Future of Commercialization: 2026 and the AI Advertising Era

If the current GEO landscape is a “natural ranking” gold rush, the tide of commercialization is already gathering momentum.

1. OpenAI’s Advertising Ambitions

According to your internal notes and industry predictions, OpenAI is actively building an ad tech team with the aim of creating an advertising platform capable of rivaling Google and Meta. Industry consensus suggests its mature advertising products will be fully rolled out around 2026.

2. The Rise of GEM (Generative Engine Marketing)

Future AI advertising will not be crude banners but rather GEM.

• Format: More native and subtle. For example, when a user asks “best running shoes for 2025,” AI might include one “sponsored recommendation” among its six suggestions, clearly marked.
• Prediction: As “instant checkout” features become ubiquitous, AI advertising will dominate conversion rates because it appears at the peak moment of user purchase intent.

3. China’s “Fast Forward” Button

Compared to OpenAI’s cautious approach, Chinese AI vendors may accelerate commercialization. Some domestic AI search platforms are already experimenting with embedding e-commerce links or service jumps in their results. For Chinese merchants, the window to adapt to “AI bidding” may be shorter than anticipated. In the future, brands might need to manage two sets of budgets: one for traditional search/feed flows, and another specifically for AI model “recommendation weight.”

IV. Profound Impact: The Rewriting of Brand Survival Rules

In this transformation, the lines between winners and losers will become exceptionally clear.

1. Exacerbated Matthew Effect: Only the “Top Six” Matter

In Google search results, even if you rank on page 2, there’s still a chance to be discovered by long-tail traffic. However, in ChatGPT, AI typically recommends only the 6-10 best options.

The Harsh Reality: If your brand cannot make this “shortlist,” your exposure in the AI world will be zero. This is a massive boon for top-tier brands but a devastating blow for mid-to-lower-tier brands.

2. SMBs’ “Curveball Overtake”: Extreme Niche Specialization

Does this mean small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) have no chance? No. Semrush data shows that ChatGPT frequently cites content ranking beyond Google’s top 20, provided that content possesses exceptionally high originality and expertise in a vertical niche.

Strategy: Target niche markets that larger brands overlook. In specific scenarios (e.g., “long-distance trail running shoes for flat feet”), AI will prioritize brands with the most detailed content in that domain, rather than just large general brands.

3. The Demise of “White Label” Products: No Brand, No Future

Most importantly: Brand equals asset. AI’s recommendation logic is based on “trust” and “reputation.” If you only sell generic products (white label) without a brand name, users cannot ask AI about your products, and AI cannot locate you within vast datasets. In the future, merchants without brand power will completely lose their traffic entry points.

Conclusion: A Strategic Guide for Business Leaders

AI Search is transforming commerce from “traffic is king” to “source is king.” Just as Amazon once wrested product search authority from Google, ChatGPT and its peers are now attempting to seize the entire e-commerce “decision-making” and “transactional” authority.

Key Insights & Recommendations:

1. Seize the GEO Gold Rush: The current GEO landscape is akin to SEO in the early 2000s – a last-gasp opportunity to acquire high-value traffic at a low cost. For outbound enterprises, immediately optimize your independent website’s structured data. For domestic businesses, ensure your content covers the core platforms preferred by major AI models (Douyin/Zhihu/WeChat Official Accounts).
2. Shift from “Buying Traffic” to “Creating Credible Sources”: Review your marketing budget. Is a portion allocated to creating high-quality content that AI can reference (white papers, reviews, Wikipedia entries), rather than solely on ad spend?
3. Branding is the Lifeline: Whether domestic or international, accelerate the transition away from generic “white label” products. In AI’s logic, your brand name is the primary index for user retrieval.